The result of the Brecon and Radnorshire by election was not wholly unexpected. After all the Tory candidate had been found guilty of falsifying his electora expenses records, had been the subject of a recall petition, and had been re-nominated for the by-election in a gross gesture of defiance.
The victorious Lib Dems had come to an agreement with the Greens and Plaid Cymru that gave them a clear run as the only pro-EU contestant. This gave them a narrow victory over the Tories and the Brexit party and the humiliated, fourth placed Labour candidate.
While on paper Boris Johnson still has a theoretical Commons majority of one, including the DUP MPs, the reality is that he is leading a minority Brexit administration in a chamber where there is a ckear majority against his threat to leave the EU on 31st October on a no-deal basis.
The blood-letting involved in his cabinet purge is now of huge relevance. Those Tories who resigned or were sacked to make way for hard-line Brexiteers now have the opportunity to use a cross-party majority to frustrate any attempt by Johnson to crash out on a no-deal basis.
Heavyweight Tories such as Dominic Greave, Philip Hammond and Ken Clarke can now safely mobilise a significant cohort of Tory backbenchers to make common cause with the opposition to prevent the UK from crashing out of the EU. They have nothing to lose any more except their reputations.
Press reports suggest that they will use the month of August to devise a legally binding prohibition on the no-deal exit which Johnson is threatening. With the aid of the Speaker, John Bercow, there are ways by which the Commons can assert its authority on the issue.
If they combine to legally exclude a no-deal crash-out, Johnson's threat will lose whatever credibility it ever had. His EU interlocutors will know he is bluffing. And they will treat him accordingly.
My own view is that Johnson is clearly bluffing - at least in the sense that he does not really believe that the UK can simply give two fingers to the EU and walk away into a free-trading sunset.
The only sense in which he may not be consciously bluffing is that he may consider that if there is no agreement by 31st October, he will be in a stronger postion to negotiate thereafter with the EU 27 on the basis of a de facto crash-out.
The problem with that strategy is that the EU 27 will make it clear to him and to the people of Britain that they will make any such negotiation one in which the UK suffers hugely for reneging on the withdrawak agreement. They will, i think, convey in the clearest and most unambiguous terms that the UK will suffer severely if it attampts to follow a "crash out first,negotiate second" strategy.
If that is made clear, Johson will blink. He can't seriously think that the UK will have access to any EU markets for goods or services on advantageous terms if he tears up the withdrawal agreement to which he personally was a party as a membet of the May cabinet.
As I wrote here last week, the most he can hope for is an explanatory protocol of some kind to the withdrawal agreement. The EU 27 will not abrogate the withdrawal agreement. It's as simple as that. The EU 27 cannot be seen to capitulate to Johnson's demand.
The substance of the back-stop must survive intact. The UK cannot have an open, friction=free border on the island of Ireland or, indeed, at Dover or Calais unless it demonstrates how that is compatible with the integrity of the Common Tariff Area, the Single European Market, and the EU's product safety regime.
Squaring that circle is a UK issue. If there are to be no controls on the Irish Sea, as the DUP are demanding, there will have to be controls elsewhere. The practicability of any other regime is a matter for the UK to demonstrate. In the absence of such demonstration the EU cannot concede the abrogation of the withdrawal agreement as it stands.
If Johnson needs a protocol fudge, the onus is on him to sell it to the EU and to the voters of Britain.
What are his options now?
The month of August gives him an opportunity to mull over his choices.
If it were not for that pesky fixed term parliament legislation, he could have asked the Queen to give him a general election. A majority in the Commons can prevent him from going to the country while keeping open his no-deal Brexit threat. A run to the country is a non-runner.
Can he thwart a majority cross-party bid in the Commons in September or early October to outlaw a no-deal Brexit? Very doubtful.
Can he persuade the EU 27 to scrap the withdrawal agreement? No
Can he negotiate a fudge protocol to the withdrawal agreement in terms that he could portray as a significant change n the back-stop?
The only way he can do that, I think, is to abandon one of Mrs May's red lines and to allow the UK to choose between the entire UK being in customs and regulatory alignment or Northern Ireland alone havng that status.That would entail dumping on the DUP. He might find it impossible to get Commons backing for such a protocol.
If the Commons rejected it, he could put down a motion of confidence based on his protocol, lose it and have an election to seek a mandate from the war-weary, Corbyn-wary voters of England. Very risky - but it may be his only way to get to the ballot box in reasonable order.
After Brecon and Radnorshire, he knows he must get to the country very soon. His capacity to carry on is virtually spent.
In the meantime, the only issue for Ireland is whether we should soften our stance on the withdrawal agreement. To do so would be politically suicidal and impossible for the Government, I think. Nor do I think thatr the EU 27 are minded to do so.
All of the Johnson government's blather about spending hundreds of millions on preparatory advertising, recruiting 500 extra customs staff, free ports, insisting on the back-stop being taken off the table before talks, and generally throwing macho shapes about their intended confrontational stance with the EU is, I think, a massive bluff - a bluff directed at British voters rather than their their EU interlocutors who know well that the UK simply will not and cannot crash out.
Johnson is a bluffer. As I wrote here last week, he is no Churchill. He need not be appeased. Give him his fudge protocol so that he can wave it around like Neville Chamberlain, by all means.
But make it very clear to Johnson that a no-deal Brexit will damage him and Britain by far the most.
The EU must stand up to him. Capitulation to him would very seriously damage the EU itself.
In the end, his first concern will be to save his own skin. As it always has been.
