One of the less endearing characteristics of professional political commentators is their caution against being proven wrong in the future. The result, frequently, is bet-hedging, vagueness in editorial style, a blend of the lofty, vacuous and the ambiguous.
As a counterpoint, I pose the question as to where we will be in one year’s time. Crystal ball gazing is, admittedly, difficult in a period of international instability. But attempting to judge the direction of current events is nonetheless useful as it gives us some sense of perspective. In that spirit, I raise some possibilities and make some predictions.
- US midterms: Donald Trump’s Republican Party will probably lose control of at least one of the Houses of Congress in the midterm elections this November. This will render the second half of his second term in office a lame-duck presidency. No longer in a position to legislate or to formulate budget the Maga regime in the White House will be severely weakened. The only constraint on the House of Representatives will be an understandable desire on the part of Democrats to avoid undermining whoever they select as their presidential candidate in 2028.
- Trump’s designs on Cuba: In a sane world, such a midterm outcome would tend to create a context for some degree of political conciliation between Republicans and Democrats. I predict, however, that Trump – shorn of overall control over Congress – will simply engage in the politics of denial and attempt to carry on as if there were no opposition or countervailing congressional power. And, so, the White House will set its eyes on the low-hanging fruit of regime change in Havana. That suits the Trump agenda and the political prospects – such as they are – of Marco Rubio. Viewed another way, if Cuba remains under Communist Party control in the same way as Iran seems set to remain under the control of Shia theocrats then the US’s impotence will be made plain to the entire world. Cuban regime change serves as Trump’s last hope for building a Maga legacy.
- His designs on Greenland: Will Trump attempt to seize Greenland? I suggest he won’t. Conflict between Trump and Europe generated by US far right geo-strategists has been utterly counterproductive in terms of the US’s global power and influence. Enmity between Europe and the US is also politically toxic for Republicans’ ambitions in 2028. The White House, I predict, will turn down the dial and seek a closer relationship with erstwhile Nato allies.
- Trump’s designs on Europe: In that regard, the outrageous strategy of promoting far-right political movements in Europe and seeking to influence European public opinion to favour politicians and policies that weaken Europe has manifestly failed. Barring an electoral triumph for French far-right leader Jordan Bardella in the upcoming French presidential elections, the White House has nothing to show for its efforts to intervene in and dominate democratic discourse on the European continent.
- Andy Burnham: The naked hostility of the Trump regime to Keir Starmer and his Labour Party in the UK must now refocus on two or three years of a likely Andy Burnham-led Labour government. While Starmer’s departure will probably not signify any major realignment of Britain’s relationship with the US, I predict that Burnham will be able to demonstrate greater independence in the special relationship now that the tariff war unleashed by Trump has in effect ended. Burnham will not have to engage in Oval Office obsequiousness or feel the need to invite Trump to take toe-curling, circular carriage rides in the grounds of Windsor Castle.
- United Kingdom: Events, as Harold Macmillan pointed out, can upend political predictions. Who would have guessed three years ago that the DUP and the Scottish Nationalists could be so threatened by the convictions of, respectively, Jeffrey Donaldson and of Peter Murrell, the now-estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon? From an Irish perspective, the political complexion of these islands is changing. I foresee a recovery by the Scottish Nationalists. Winning back Scotland or Wales for Labour seems a challenging and long, drawn-out project for Burnham. While brazen Tory media will soon sink their claws into Burnham in the hope of a recovery for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, the reality is that the Tories in last week’s Makerfield byelection only managed 2.2 per cent of the vote, barely 900 votes ahead of novelty candidate Count Binface.
- Reform UK: There are some signs of abatement in the progress of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party. I see the fading of Restore. Unless Farage sustains a major personal setback in the form of political scandal, I imagine that the Tories will not be seen as a government-in-waiting for the next two years.
- Northern Ireland: My prediction is the powersharing executive will once again come under immense strain as diminishing budgetary resources force more difficult political choices on the unhappy marriage of the DUP and Sinn Féin.
- Sinn Féin: Sinn Féin’s ambition to lead a left-wing coalition in the Republic seems to me to be receding as political reality. The nightmare of political irrelevance, North and South, and declining support deriving from the party’s pro-immigration ideology suggests a period of further decline.
Let’s see how these predictions work out.