The observation by Littlefinger in Game of Thrones that “chaos is not a pit; chaos is a ladder” comes easily to mind when we watch the way in which Gerry Adams tries to keep Sinn Féin at the centre of public attention by keeping the political situation in crisis mode and playing a game of political “chicken” with Arlene Foster about forming a new power-sharing executive.
Cynically, he demands that a top-level chairman, preferably a person who now enjoys the international status that George Mitchell had in the late 1990s, be appointed to chair discussions with the DUP. That would, he hopes, somehow elevate the present grubby little mud-fight to an international crisis and bring the spotlight back on Gerry. James Brokenshire and Simon Coveney are not sufficiently important or powerful to generate a good box-office crisis.
Many people, myself included, believe that normal politicians would call a truce on the Irish language issue in order to give the people of Northern Ireland a voice in the Brexit process. But that would involve a climb-down for Gerry. And just as Alastair Campbell famously said of Tony Blair’s premiership, “We don’t do God”, it is equally axiomatic that Gerry “doesn’t do climbdowns” – at least not in the public gaze.
Having called ridiculously for a border poll in the North which he must know would be beaten 70:30, he is now waffling about a referendum on Irish unity in the South in next five years. That may go down well in the minds of die-hards – north and south – but it is futile blather in present circumstances.
Real republicans, myself included, know that unity can only be built on reconciliation between Orange and Green, and that premature border polls and referenda can only set back the cause of reconciliation by decades.
That doesn’t faze Gerry. As long as he is in the eye of the hurricane, he doesn’t care about the damage it causes. He has followed this strategy for years and a goodly proportion of the media and commentariat fall for it unsuspectingly. It has served him well.
The problem is that Arlene and the DUP don’t “do climb-downs” either. They have a deal with the Tories. And the Tories are not going to humiliate them for the moment. So Gerry has little by way of leverage in relation to making demands for the restoration of Stormont.
It’s worse than that. It may actually suit the Tories and their DUP allies that the Good Friday Agreement is “out of action” at the hands of Sinn Féin. Michel Barnier’s strong public insistence that Brexit must not damage the Good Friday Agreement is undermined by pointing to the fact that Adams has already collapsed the scrum in a row over the Irish language.
Few enough Brussels bureaucrats will have much sympathy with those who see resolving a dispute about the Irish language as the greatest political priority in present circumstances.
As for the people of Norther Ireland not having a voice in the Brexit process, we have to remember that that even if the DUP and Sinn Féin formed an executive, they are not singing from the same hymn-sheet on Brexit.
While both may favour a seamless, invisible, friction-free border, if it comes to a choice as to where some form of high-tech customs oversight might be necessary – a choice between the line of the existing border or a line down the Irish Sea – the DUP will be very difficult about any controls between the North and Britain.
In fact, the DUP’s position on customs, tariffs and agriculture is kept very much under wraps. Would their staunch farmer supporters be happy with a cheap food policy favoured by Michael Gove and the ending of CAP-style supports in 2020 ? Do their business supporters want North-South tariffs? The economic interests of Northern Ireland are definitely best served by the softest of soft “soft Brexit”.
The DUP support for Brexit, which was a minority view in the North, was based more on atavistic British nationalism than hard-headed economics. Their problem is that the outlook for investment in Northern Ireland looks very bleak indeed if their erstwhile Little Englander allies bring about a hard Brexit. Economic decline will swell the existing strong flow of young people from unionist backgrounds out of the North in pursuit of degrees and opportunities, and accelerate the clear demographic trend towards Protestantism becoming the minority culture there.
If they have sense, they should be willing to use their pivotal role at Westminster to get a soft Brexit with a free trade based on the equivalent of customs union membership, however that is dressed up as a partnerhip. The centre of gravity in the House of Commons and in the British establishment lies in a soft Brexit scenario. The only obstacle to the negotiation of a soft Brexit is the need to keep the Tory party from splitting.
In one sense, what the DUP does at Westminster is more important than what they do at Stormont, given that Sinn Féin has gifted them the balance of power.
Regarding the Irish language, it seems to me that official status can be a false god. Those of us who care strongly for its revival and survival well know that the nub issue is as simple as it is elusive – bringing about fluency.
South of the border, where status has been a “given” since independence, the problem has been one of transformation from status to fluency. Sometimes I think that if we gave 100% 0f the marks in the Leaving Cert to the oral test, literacy in Irish would look after itself. Rugby as Gaeilge on TG4 does a lot more for Irish than translating and printing obscure statutory instruments.
In any event, the welcome revival in spoken Irish in Northern Ireland is not being held back by status issues; some people even joke that it would prosper better under an outright legal ban!
The important thing is that the Irish language is not used or perceived as a political battering ram in the North’s siege politics.
Lastly, as I predicted here a few weeks back, Fianna Fáil has copped on to the mortal danger that talk of coalition with Sinn Féin represents for the party. Middle Ireland does not want such a coalition and will do whatever has to be done to prevent it.
Gerry’s long goodbye hasn’t even started yet. And he’ll put Enda Kenny in the shade. The Boys in Belfast will use the next election to try to finish off Labour completely so as to align themselves as the political voice of the trade union movement. That’s where their resources will go.
And those few councillors who are jumping ship because of Sinn Féin bullying should remember that SDLP workers and candidates had their tyres slashed and homes attacked by the party they joined and are now leaving. Gerry Fitt had to hold off Sinn Féin marauders at gunpoint from the top of the stairs in his home as part of their campaign to oust him in West Belfast.
No Sinn Fein members in the South protested then. And they won’t now. Dissent is not permitted Veteran councillor Francie Molloy was instantly suspended for publicly querying the party’s failed policy on local government reform in the North a few years ago.
Maybe Mary Lou some day will get the chance to party to throw off the absolute dominance of the Belfast Brigade. Maybe not. Maybe they will anoint a more malleable glove puppet in the same way that Michelle O’Neill was “hand-picked”.
That’s democracy for you!
